The Hollywood Foreign Press is at a strange time. Infamous for being the Oscars’ more chaotic and embarrassing younger sibling, the HFPA has faced a myriad of controversies throughout its 80-year-old history. Fromethical dilemmas, bribery scandals, accusations oflack of Black representationin its voting body, andsexual harassment claims, the HFPA is no stranger to scandal.
But 2021 was a year of reckoning for the HFPA, and the Golden Globes suffered because of it. After much uncertainty regarding the 2023 Golden Globes, NBC announced it would indeed air them again. The Golden Globes will likely play a role in this year’s Oscar race and will lay a path for some of the season’s strongest contenders. But who will win? Who will go empty-handed? We break it all down for you with our predictions and slightly cranky commentary.
Golden Globe movie predictions
On the film side, things are hectic and confusing.Best Motion Picture Dramaseems to be a clear win forSteven Spielberg’s origin story,The Fabelmans, while Spielberg himself seems a shoo-in forBest Director. However, one must never underestimate James Cameron, especially whenAvatar: The Way of Wateris on a fast track to reaching the $2 billion mark. I wouldn’t put it past the HFPA to crown Cameron the king of the world again, especially in a season that seems less reluctant to rewardsome of 2022’s most popular movies. And whilethe crowd-pleasingTop Gun: Maverickremains a possibility, its thunder seems to have been stolen by the Na’vi.
InBest Motion Picture Musical or Comedy, it’s a battle of banshees and multiversal beings. It might seem likethe phenomenon that isEverything Everywhere All at Oncehas an easy path to victory, but it might have met its match in Martin McDonagh’s tragicomedyThe Banshees of Inisherin.Everything Everywhereremains the favorite, butBansheeskeeps picking up momentum, collecting critics’ awards left and right and cementing itself as a dark horse. For now, fortune seems to favor the Daniels’ unconventional sci-fi masterpiece, but it’s never wise to underestimate a good black comedy.
Things are much clearer on the acting side. Cate Blanchett will winBest Actress Dramafor her tour-de-force performance inTodd Field’s challengingTÁR, while Michelle Yeoh has theBest Actress Musical or Comedytrophy in the bag for her emotional and career-best work inEverything Everywhere, making both Best Actress categories a sure thing. In theBest Supporting Actresscategory, Jamie Lee Curtis might win her third Globe for her unhinged performance inEverything Everywhere, but she faces tough competition from another overdue icon,Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s Angela Bassett. For now, my gut is to stick with Curtis. She is campaigninghard, and the HFPA loves to reward the effort.
The male side is trickier.Best Actor in a Motion Picture Musical or Comedyis locked, and Colin Farrell should have his speech ready if he plans to attend, anyway. As forBest Actor Drama, pundits are leaning towardElvis‘ Austin Butler, and it’s easy to see why: it’s a flashy performance, and the Globes love an up-and-comer.
But it’s reckless to discount Brendan Fraser, especially because he has the best narrative out of any nominee this year. Considering his story with the organization, not rewarding him might be an awful look for the HFPA, and god knows they can’t deal with another scandal. So I’m sticking with Fraser all the way to the Oscars, not only because his work inThe Whaleis a masterclass, but because he is the embodiment of “it’s about damn time.” As forBest Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture, it’s Ke Huy Quan’s to lose, and no way he is losing. The Oscar might as well have his name already.
And what about the other categories? McDonagh will prevail inBest Original Screenplay, while Guillermo del Toro will walk away withBest Animated Featurefor his reinvention of the little wooden boy.Best Original Scoremight beBabylon‘s only win, but watch out forThe Fabelmans— few things can beat a John Williams’ score.
Interestingly, the hardest category to predict might beBest Non-English Language Film, where it’s a two-horse race betweenRRRandAll Quiet on the Western Front. The odds favor the former, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the latter came out victorious. Finally, we all know the HFPA will want Lady Gaga on stage to acceptBest Original Song, but they could also want Rihanna, especially considering Gaga already has two Globes.
Golden Globe TV predictions
Over on the television side,Best Drama Seriesis up for grabs.Apple TV+’sSeveranceseems like a very HFPA choice, especially because they might saveThe Crown‘s big wins for its sixth and final season. There’s alsothe HBO phenomenonHouse of the Dragon, but the World of Ice and Fire has never connected with the HFPA or SAG, and there’s no reason to believe it might be different this time.Best Comedy Seriesmight seem like a sure thing forAbbott Elementary, but I thinkThe Bearwill put in a surprise win. The Globes love to reward freshman comedies, andthe Hulu originalseems poised to continue that trend.
Odds also seem to favorThe Bear‘s lead to winBest Actor Comedy, the underrated Jeremy Allen White, especially because no one in his category seems “hot” enough for the HFPA’s tastes.Best Actor Dramais equally uncertain: a win for Adam Scott makes sense, especially ifSeverancewins Best Drama. However, it’s Bob Odenkirk’s last shot at a Globe for his role inBetter Call Saul, and after five nominations and no wins, it might be his time to take the stage.
Best Actress Dramais Zendaya’s to lose, and I don’t see anyone raining on her parade. As forBest Actress Comedy, I fully expectWednesday‘s Jenna Ortega to walk away with the win. The HFPAlovesto reward an ingenue, and with the show being an overwhelming and undeniable success, Ortega’s path to victory becomes clearer.
The supporting performances are chaotic, as per usual. Combining Comedy and Drama means you have categories with actors fromHacksandOzarkcompeting against each other.Best Supporting Actorwill likely go toSeverance‘s John Turturro, but Jonathan Pryce might surprise, even if his Prince Philip isn’t exactly the best.
InBest Supporting Actress, one of theAbbott Elementaryladies might prevail, probably Sheryl Lee Ralph. However, I wouldn’t put it past the HFPA to go with Elizabeth Debicki for her uncanny portrayal of Princess Diana inThe Crown. In fact, I think Debicki is the likely winner, especially because her role in season 6 is shaping up to be short.
Then there’s theBest Limited or Anthology Series or Television Filmcategories. In an ideal world,HBO’s lunatic satireThe White Lotuswould prevail, but we don’t live in that world. Thus, Netflix’s ridiculously-named andirresponsibleDahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Storywill come out triumphant — the ceremony is awarding Ryan Murphy with the Carol Burnett Award for honorary contributions to television; you knowDahmerwill win big.
Things also bode well forDahmer‘s lead, Evan Peters, who will probably win theBest Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Television FilmGlobe for his admittedly chilling performance. I’m torn between my desire to see Peters recognized and the fact it’s for such an egregious project, especially whenBlack Bird‘s Taron Egerton might be an arguably worthier winner. As forBest Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film, Amanda Seyfried has it in the bag forThe Dropout.
Moving on to thesupporting categories, where something tells me Oscar winner F. Murray Abraham will prevail for his scene-stealing work inThe White Lotus.Black Bird‘s Paul Walter Hauser is also a strong contender, but I don’t see him getting the HFPA’s favor. Finally, Supporting Actress seems to be all about Jennifer Coolidge, but she faces friendly fire from Aubrey Plaza and genuine competition fromDahmer‘s Niecy Nash. Ultimately, I think Coolidge is safe, but Nash could sneak up and pull a not-so-shocking upset.
The 80th Golden Globes will airon Tuesday, January 10, at 8 p.m. ET. Watch them live on NBC or stream them on Peacock.
